Key takeaways from our client-only market update for tax credit buyers

Last week, Crux hosted a briefing for tax credit buyers to discuss policy and market updates. A panel of experts from CAC, Arnold & Porter, and Crux unpacked key insights to help buyers optimize their 2025 tax credit transfer strategies and secure the best opportunities in the market in the current policy environment.

This briefing is available exclusively to Crux clients, but we’re sharing a few highlights below.

Pricing for tax credits has generally risen 

The market is seeing stronger pricing for transferable tax credits, although average pricing for 2025 investment tax credits (ITCs) is down compared to the end of 2024. This is in line with the seasonal pricing trends that Crux observed in 2024, and buyers should expect ITC prices to rise as demand increases throughout the year. Pricing for production tax credits (PTCs) is holding relatively strong. 

Panelists noted that buyers who are willing to commit to purchase multiple years of credits or buy strips of credits can often negotiate discounted pricing. Note that buyers only pay for these future credits when the credits are generated.

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Buyers find benefits to transacting earlier in the year

Top companies are already shifting their focus to 2025 tax liabilities, knowing that there are benefits to purchasing credits now versus later in the year:

• Competition will increase — and supply will likely decrease — later in the year, making it more difficult to negotiate pricing discounts.
• Buyers enjoy a wider supply earlier in the year, so they can pick the specific type of credit they are looking for.
• Buyers can start to take the benefit of tax credits on their quarterly estimated payments now, seeing a real cash-flow benefit.

More diverse credit types are accessing insurance

Buyers should expect to see more diversity entering the market as new technologies become eligible for the §48E and §45Y tech-neutral credits and permitting issues for §45Q carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects are cleared up. 

Insurance plays an important role in helping buyers gain comfort with new technology categories. Sellers generally bear the cost of insurance.

Further reading: Download our guide to risk mitigation in tax credit transactions

Panelists also discussed a policy outlook, including why buyers should still feel comfortable transacting, scenarios for change in law, and the role of insurance in mitigating change-in-law risk. The full briefing is available exclusively to Crux clients. Contact us to get started on Crux today.